IDC, Gartner and Forrester released their technology predictions for 2016 this week. Mainstream enterprise companies are quickly embracing cloud computing and digital transformation.
“Mainstream companies in every industry are realizing they’ll be disrupted if they don’t get moving now,” said Frank Gens, IDC’s chief analyst and the IDC report’s principal author.
Many of largest companies, according to IDC, are not moving fast enough. The analyst firm predicts that a third of the top 20 companies in every industry will be “disrupted” over the next three years, meaning their revenue, profits and market position will deteriorate — not that they will go out of business. Think Kodak, Tower Records or taxi companies.
To compete these companies are recruiting and reskilling their software and IT teams. By 2018, IDC said that corporations pursuing digital transformation strategies would “more than double the size of their software development teams.” So the job market for software engineers with cloud and web development skills should stay hot.
Cloud computing is fast becoming the fundamental technology engine in corporations. IDC predicts that by 2020, spending on cloud services and related hardware and software will be more than $500 billion, three times the current level.
In the IDC view, there will be different tiers of the cloud business. One level will be several “industry cloud platforms,” the report says, developed by mainstream companies like “General Electric, John Deere, Johnson Controls and United HealthCare” that are “providing epicenters of innovation, growth and disruption in their own industries.”
But for underlying cloud infrastructure, IDC sees a “significant consolidation,” with “six or fewer cloud platform vendors” holding 80 percent or so of the market by 2020. Gens said the candidate survivors included Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, IBM and two Chinese companies, Alibaba and Tencent.